Caleb Booker

Here are my eight predictions for 2008. I’ve refrained from saying anything too vague or making the obvious “things will get faster/cheaper/better” predictions, but I left in one or two things that, while obvious to people “in the industry”, may not be completely obvious to those on the outside.

I’m pretty confident about the list. Hold me to it.

1. There will be several viable alternatives to Second Life
2. Coolest world of 2008: vLES
3. Hottest issue of 2008: bandwidth
4. Multiverse gets its wings.
5. “V” will be the new “Cyber”.
6. Google’s v-world debut.
7. People will still debate the definition of a “virtual world”.
8. Second Life will start working properly or face mass exodus.

I go over them in detail after the break.

1. There will be several viable alternatives to Second Life

   The original “Alternatives To Second Life” articles got massive attention, but there was one thing that I kind of left out: none of them could honestly claim to be as good at doing what Second Life does as… well… Second Life. This year that will change.

   My three criteria for this, entitled “Onder’s Big Three”, are:

   1. Real money must move in and out of the “virtual” economy freely. RMT (Real-Money Trading) is designed in, not forbidden by TOS.
   2. Users must be able to create unique content and retain ownership over it. Things like scripting and accepting uploads are important here. Multimedia is a bonus. We must be able to control the rights to our content.
   3. The world must be persistent, and the users able to change it. Residents like being able to build the world themselves, and don’t need somebody stepping in and erasing their work.

   Not only will Twinity, HiPiHi and Vastpark (and possibly novoKing) provide complete alternative worlds for Second Life, but there will also be a number of alternative Second Life grids. Already I’m hearing rumblings of custom-built implementations of the Second Life codebase.

   Also, don’t underestimate Kaneva. Their dual-currency Web 2.0 and virtual world mashup is a great piece of work, but casual users are having a tough time wrapping their heads around it and ended up underestimating them this year. The point, though, is that it’s a demo for the platform. You can license the platform, remix it, and make it your own probably quite a bit easier than the Second Life platform. Someone will figure that out this year.

2. Coolest world of 2008: vLES

   I’ve seen some video taken there and it’s just killer. They took everything good about the Doppelganger engine (which you can try out right now in vSide) and did an astounding rendition of Manhattan’s Lower East Side. This will be the ultimate venue for v-world concerts. I can’t wait.

3. Hottest issue of 2008: bandwidth.

   The greatest power of a virtual world is the idea that you can run into someone, walk up to them, interact, and share the experience of being in the environment together. Unfortunately, there’s a technical limit on how far we can push the idea.

   A Second Life sim starts choking with 50 avatars, and can’t go past 100 without dying. This means that concerts are never very big, parties need to be small after everyone gets dressed in their best finery, and sporting events need to restrict the number of people in the stands. Events are nothing compared to what they could be.

   The buildings in virtual spaces are overly simplified as well in order to save bandwidth. People hold back on decoration, scripting, and scale to keep the servers from flipping out trying to render everything.

   While many are finding workarounds, it will remain the one thing restricting the Metaverse from being all it can be.

4. Multiverse gets its wings.

   If you load the Multiverse 1.0 client right now, it won’t seem like much. Looks can be deceiving. The guts of the Multiverse system have better security, can handle higher concurrency, run cooler graphics and have better web integration than any v-world system out there. In 2008, somebody will create an absolutely killer world to prove it.

5. “V” will be the new “Cyber”.

   The term “Metaverse” requires too much explanation and has too many sylables for catchy headlines. Also, you can’t just use ‘verse in the same way we’ve been using ‘net because that can get confusing to the general public. “Metaverse” will still be used by people who use the term “Web 2.0″, but everybody else will have shied away from the word’s use by the end of the year like they did with “Information Superhighway”. That leaves the term “virtual world”, which once again has too many sylables.

   The old solution was to attach “cyber” as a prefix to anything that had a loose connection with the Internet. (Cyber-doctors, cyber-fanclubs, cyber-fridges, etc…) Expect newsies to start using “v” in the same way. “V-worlds”, “v-goods”, “v-services”, “v-artists”, “v-business”. It’s a useful and quick shorthand just gaining popularity now. It has the dual benefits of indicating that whatever it is we’re talking about is happening “virtually”, and it handily emphasizes how “hip” the author is to the “scene”.

6. Google’s v-world debut

   We’ll hear something official about Google’s virtual, taggable, ultra-searchable mirror world this year. Most likely there will be some kind of cellphone/PDA/GPS widget associated with it to help you find the closest Thai restaurant from your current location, and to get a quick rundown of the clubs up and down the street in case you feel like going for a drink afterward.

   People will call it astounding and amazing. At least one journalist will foolishly assume Google invented the concept of a virtual world. We’ll all laugh at them.

7. People will still debate the definition of a “virtual world”.

   I hate to say it but yeah, the debate on the official definition of a virtual world will continue ad nauseum. While many clever things will be said about it, and even more people will consider themselves clever for even having an opinion on it, nothing concrete or productive will come out of the debate this year. Even if we settle on a definition this year (extremely doubtful), it won’t change the way anybody actually does anything in 2008.

8. Second Life will start working properly or face mass exodus.

   It’s one or the other. Either the grid will stabilize, or the general public will gravitate toward a platform that doesn’t throw up all over itself every couple of days. If stability can be gained soon enough, Second Life will start growing again. If not, entire communities will vacate en masse searching out a place where they can work, play and share online without these technical hurdles. In 2008 there will be several viable alternatives.

   This new wave of stability has to begin early in the first quarter, by the way. The natives have been restless for a very long time.

Feel free to disagree, and tune in this time next year where I fess up to the results.

Posted on December 30th, 2007 under futurism. RSS 2.0 feed. Leave a response, or trackback.