http://www.calebbooker.com/blog/2009/05/06/why-hype-doesnt-matter/ New Media, Life and Work Online Wed, 30 Mar 2011 13:29:21 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.1.1 http://www.calebbooker.com/blog/2009/05/06/why-hype-doesnt-matter/comment-page-1/#comment-2476 Mark Raskino Thu, 07 May 2009 09:04:54 +0000 http://www.calebbooker.com/blog/?p=1623#comment-2476 Nice post Mr. Booker. Agree: hype does not equal value. However, looking back at history as you do here, would you concede that hype seems to be an inevitable phenomenon for new technologies? That's what my colleague Jackie Fenn concluded when analyzing emerging techs back in 1995. The hype cycle she observed, is a curve comprised of two elements combined - the rapid social excitement parabola and the slower S shape curve of underlying progress / maturity. It seems this always happens - though sometimes the effects are more extreme than others. Certainly, virtual worlds business has seen a very high and fast initial social excitement wave. We believe that the tension which arises between the two forces (hype and real progress) causes a lot of problems for managers trying to decide how and when to adopt newer technologies. But the fact is people get excited about technology, they love to explore the ideas and to discuss them - so hype is to some extent inevitable (though of course highly amplified by marketing and PR). Hype does have a certain amount of value; because it helps overcomes inertia - which is one the biggest problems larger companies and older industries face. Getting large swarms of middle managers to change their collective belief about an idea takes a lot of energy. For example look at how hard it is for the US auto industry to embrace the concept of an electric car. I do agree though - sometimes smart people seem to get caught up in more talking than doing. When that happens, they get disorientated, are ill prepared for the trough of disillusionment that follows the hype, and consequently lack the insight and tenacity to survive it. Nice post Mr. Booker. Agree: hype does not equal value. However, looking back at history as you do here, would you concede that hype seems to be an inevitable phenomenon for new technologies? That’s what my colleague Jackie Fenn concluded when analyzing emerging techs back in 1995. The hype cycle she observed, is a curve comprised of two elements combined – the rapid social excitement parabola and the slower S shape curve of underlying progress / maturity. It seems this always happens – though sometimes the effects are more extreme than others. Certainly, virtual worlds business has seen a very high and fast initial social excitement wave.
We believe that the tension which arises between the two forces (hype and real progress) causes a lot of problems for managers trying to decide how and when to adopt newer technologies. But the fact is people get excited about technology, they love to explore the ideas and to discuss them – so hype is to some extent inevitable (though of course highly amplified by marketing and PR). Hype does have a certain amount of value; because it helps overcomes inertia – which is one the biggest problems larger companies and older industries face. Getting large swarms of middle managers to change their collective belief about an idea takes a lot of energy. For example look at how hard it is for the US auto industry to embrace the concept of an electric car.
I do agree though – sometimes smart people seem to get caught up in more talking than doing. When that happens, they get disorientated, are ill prepared for the trough of disillusionment that follows the hype, and consequently lack the insight and tenacity to survive it.

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