Caleb Booker

I’m not quite ready to make my 2009 predictions public. We’re still doing some research and my predictions may actually end up being the intellectual property of Clever Zebra. We’ll figure that out when the reports are done.

As a trade-off, why not a roundup of what the pundits are saying? Some of what you’ll find below I agree with, some seems completely random, and some is actually happening already. (ie: no endorsement implied, this is just what Google served up.) It’s all worthy of discussion though, and gives you something to have a friendly argument about at the next meetup.

What The Bloggers Say

These are in no particular order, and vary from industry-wide to Second Life specific:

The Metaverse Journal

1. OpenSim grids will bleed Second Life users
2. Virtual worlds will appear as normal daily life in TV / Movies
3. There will be a net increase in Australian business in virtual worlds
4. Virtual worlds will remain a political no-go zone
5. Metaplace will be a game-changer
6. Virtual sex will lead to legislation
7. Australian Universities will fall further behind in incorporating virtual world training tools
8. Second Life will remain a frustrating experience
9. Growth, growth, growth
10. Virtual Goods will boom

Gwyneth Llewelyn

1. Linden Lab will not launch any major features in 2009
2. OpenSim will grow significantly (but still not be a showstopper for LL)
3. Linden Lab will promote “the return to the mainland”
4. Content creator ‘wars’ will start to attract the media’s attention
5. Corporations will continue to flock to SL — in silence
6. All major universities in the world will offer remote training and remote educational facilities using SL
7. Business angels and venture capitalists will drop their support on all the ‘trendy’ start-ups that tried to compete with Linden Lab’s Second Life
8. Community-developed “alternative” SL clients will start to be used massively
9. Second Life will not be Anglo-Saxonic any more
10. The number of Second Life residents will continue to grow; the SL economy will not flatten out and die; content creators will continue to astonish us with their creativity; new types of events will still flock people to them

Mobitrends

1. Most first-tier businesses will be carrying out experiments
2. Bots and NPCs will become common thing within 3Dweb environments and IA will be able to start showing its full potential.
3. Accessories especially designed to engage in 3D web will roll out and the one already on the market will strongly develop.
4. 3Dweb will get mobile and to the games consoles.
5. 3Dweb will interconnect seamlessly with 2Dweb communication tools.

Second Thoughts

1. Second Life will continue to grow
2. Bots will continue to be permitted, will not be banned, and likely not even forced to have paid accounts.
3. Lindens will remove traffic from search results.
4. Lindens will continue to blur the distinction between mainland and private islands
5. At least one senior Linden manager will leave LL
6. Philip Linden will be writing a book
7. [...?] Something new will be added to the LindEx
8. Anshe Chung will finish leaving Second Life
9. The Lindens will raise mainland tier to $295
10. Open Sim and other opensource projects will continue to be for geeky insiders only, and continue to flop

Metaverse Roadmap

1. Mitch Kapor: 3D cameras will make virtual worlds easier to use
2. Areae’s Raph Koster: Virtual world cash to go to entertainment

From Outside

Virtual world experts can sometimes create a bit of an echo-chamber, where everyone approves of each other’s messages and assumes they understand something about the world. The question we must always ask ourselves is what is going on outside of the echo chamber itself.

Here’s what a few people who do not bill themselves as virtual world specialists have to say about our industry’s place in things.

• Robin Good (new media) - The Ongoing Virtual Conference Project
• Lightspeed Venture Partners (technology venture capital) - Trading real money for virtual goods
• Bob Sutor (Open Source expert) - OpenSimulator will increasingly challenge Second Life for those who wish to host their own virtual worlds.
• ZDnet (tech blog) - Virtual Worlds Gain Foothold
• The Big Chair (executive magazine interviewing Steve Prentice of Gartner) - Next year, “we will be looking at how to work effectively in a virtual environment”.
• mikevu (web consultant) - Disney will buy EA and lay the foundation for virtual world and virtual gaming domination
• Marketing Conversation (new marketing and social media) - It will no longer be quaint to play the role of the technoboob

Who did I miss?

As you look through these predictions, what’s missing? Which are dead wrong? Which seem completely random?

Leave links to your 2009 predictions in the comments!

Posted on January 3rd, 2009 under business, futurism, hype, new media, virtual worlds. RSS 2.0 feed. Leave a response, or trackback.