Why Hype Doesn’t Matter

While I’ve been known to go off on a rant in the past, I’ll restrain myself a little bit this time. Promise. Maybe.

Every week that I do the Business in Virtual Worlds News at least one story comes out deeply concerned about the state of the hype about… something. As if we’re all very concerned about how interested in things reporters and bloggers are.

There’s something you have to remember about full-time reporters though: they aren’t actually doing anything. They’re just talking about people who are. There’s a difference, honest!

Here, this is what I’m talking about:

Farming Hype Is Over

Yes that’s right ladies and gentlemen, it looks like all of that hype over farming (or as the scientists would call it: “agriculture”) is finally over. Around the turn of the century it’s all anyone could talk about. In the decades that followed we were all very concerned about drought and government farming policies. Remember the debates over pesticides and fertilizers?

But think about it: when was the last time the New York Times even carried an article about farming, except to report on the latest livestock disease? Let’s face it, farming is dead. Old news. Just give up on the whole thing.

Hype != Worth

Somehow the logic has been that if nobody is promoting a thing, nobody is finding it useful. To put it another way: everything worth doing is being actively sold to you as a good idea, and always will be. As soon as you are permitted to forget about something, you should because it is no longer useful to anyone anywhere.

Meanwhile, people get tremendous use out of things every day that most people have no idea about. Take this largely ignored CBC report from 1993, for instance:

When this aired nobody really cared, and it certainly wasn’t the beginning of any kind of hype cycle. Heck, it really only covers Usenet newsgroups. It wasn’t until people started hearing about the “world wide web” that the hype really started, quickly followed by reports that the hype had “finally died down”. Meanwhile, the Internet kept growing. Repeat with the “Web 2.0″ catchphrase.

I’m not saying that hype doesn’t have an impact. The dot-com boom was all about people putting too much stock in hype, and the bust about people assuming the negative hype meant something. Still, if you were foolish enough to have lengthy discussions about “the state of hype” over all of this, rather than getting out there and doing something, I guarantee you missed something.

So, what was the last conversation you had about something that was “all hype”? How many things could you have explored, discovered or actually experimented with during that time? What would have been the difference?

1 Response to “Why Hype Doesn’t Matter”


  1. Mark Raskino

    Nice post Mr. Booker. Agree: hype does not equal value. However, looking back at history as you do here, would you concede that hype seems to be an inevitable phenomenon for new technologies? That’s what my colleague Jackie Fenn concluded when analyzing emerging techs back in 1995. The hype cycle she observed, is a curve comprised of two elements combined – the rapid social excitement parabola and the slower S shape curve of underlying progress / maturity. It seems this always happens – though sometimes the effects are more extreme than others. Certainly, virtual worlds business has seen a very high and fast initial social excitement wave.
    We believe that the tension which arises between the two forces (hype and real progress) causes a lot of problems for managers trying to decide how and when to adopt newer technologies. But the fact is people get excited about technology, they love to explore the ideas and to discuss them – so hype is to some extent inevitable (though of course highly amplified by marketing and PR). Hype does have a certain amount of value; because it helps overcomes inertia – which is one the biggest problems larger companies and older industries face. Getting large swarms of middle managers to change their collective belief about an idea takes a lot of energy. For example look at how hard it is for the US auto industry to embrace the concept of an electric car.
    I do agree though – sometimes smart people seem to get caught up in more talking than doing. When that happens, they get disorientated, are ill prepared for the trough of disillusionment that follows the hype, and consequently lack the insight and tenacity to survive it.